俄罗斯市场将迎来大换血

俄罗斯美国总统普京2月24日宣布在乌克兰采用特别军事行动后，美国、欧盟等国家大幅度升级对俄制裁措施。一系列跨国企业宣布离开俄罗斯市场，涉及到货运物流、影片、数字设备、服饰、电子商务等众多领域。

NIKE、adidas、PUMA、锐步等西方国家品牌陆续加入了终断在俄业务的大军。3月2日晚，全世界第二大服装零售商、德国品牌服装H&M在官方网站公布中止在俄罗斯的全部市场销售。之后，西班牙盈迪德(Inditex)集团公司公布声明称，已停止在俄罗斯的交易，关闭了502家Zara店铺，并停止了在线销售。Inditex集团旗下有着ZARA、PULL&BEAR、Bershka、Oysho、Massimo Dutti等众多品牌。西班牙第二大服装零售商芒果(Mango)表明，也将临时关掉其在俄罗斯的120家店面，第三大服装集团腾达也做到了相近决定。

（4月底，俄罗斯第二大城市圣彼得堡市市区的街上，出现了一个灯牌艺术创作，它由英文字母“ZAMESTIM”构成，每一个英文字母都相匹配了一个离去俄罗斯市场的西方国家知名品牌。）

在西方国家时尚运动品牌专卖店对俄罗斯拉上卷帘门之时，俄罗斯运动服装市场会否因此发生“真空”? 西方国家公司的“退潮”会给哪些品牌带来机会?

俄权威专家觉得，将来取代离开的外国品牌的，最可能是俄罗斯自身的品牌或中国的李宁、安踏及土尔其 Kinetix 等国际品牌。

2021年，我国变成俄罗斯鞋品进口的的引领者。俄罗斯一半左右的国外鞋类产品来自中国，总额超出15亿美金，出口量几乎是俄罗斯总产量的两倍。

据从俄罗斯咨询管理公司“莱坊俄罗斯”(Knight Frank Russia)获知，2022年，只有两个外国品牌进到俄罗斯市场，其中包括我国“李宁”。

李宁、安踏等中国服装品牌，具有进军俄罗斯市场的潜力

黑龙江大学中俄全面战略协作省部共建协同创新中心首席教授马友君接纳俄罗斯通讯卫星新闻社访谈时表明，西方国家封禁有益于发展中国家的商品进军俄罗斯市场，而价廉物美的中国产品更具有发展潜力。并且对俄制裁的目地之一是彻底击垮俄罗斯，战争结束后很有可能不会马上撤消这种制裁措施。

rmb支付或变成将来中国俄罗斯经贸关系的主要付款方式

权威专家表明，目前可知，现在中国在俄罗斯市场市场销售的主要是日常生活用品和纺织产品，以民营企业、股份制公司或非官方企业为主，这类公司并没有在欧美等西方国家制裁之列。从未来加强合作的视角看来，对俄罗斯的经济制裁导致全世界大部分商品价格增涨，必定会加重全球金融危机的风险率。现阶段，李宁、安踏等国产品牌在俄罗斯设立的门店较少。因而，除开考虑俄罗斯市场有可能进一步增加对中国产品的需求外，还有待观查俄罗斯市场的支付能力是否会遭受经济不景气的影响。

马友方说：“依据科学研究，我国在俄罗斯市场产品约1/3使用美金，1/3使用人民币，1/3使用卢布。将来使用美金付款的概率显而易见并不大，仅剩人民币和卢布可以使用。可是卢布汇率起伏比较大，因此人民币支付或将变成将来两国之间经贸关系的主要付款方式。”

自然，国产品牌在进到俄罗斯市场时也必须掌握限度，一方面不可以过多侵占俄罗斯市场；另一方面还要特别注意防止出口假冒伪劣产品，确保在俄罗斯市场的良性相互合作。

河南圣艳纺织宣传部

..............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................

The Russian market will usher in a big change

The United States, the European Union and other countries have significantly upgraded their sanctions against Russia after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the adoption of special military operations in Ukraine on February 24. A series of multinational enterprises announced to leave the Russian market, involving freight logistics, films, digital equipment, clothing, e-commerce and many other fields.

Nike, Adidas, puma, Reebok and other Western brands have successively joined the army that has terminated its business in Russia. On the evening of March 2, h&m, the world's second largest clothing retailer and German brand clothing, announced on its official website that it would suspend all market sales in Russia. Later, Spain's INDITEX group announced that it had stopped trading in Russia, closed 502 Zara stores and stopped online sales. INDITEX group has many brands such as Zara, pull&bear, Bershka, oysho, Massimo dutti, etc. Mango, Spain's second largest clothing retailer, said it would also temporarily close its 120 stores in Russia, and Tengda, the third largest clothing group, made a similar decision.

(at the end of April, on the streets of St. Petersburg, the second largest city in Russia, there appeared a lamp board art creation, which was composed of the English letter "zamestim", and each English letter matched a well-known Western brand that left the Russian market.)

When western fashion and sports brand stores pull down the rolling shutter door to Russia, will there be a "vacuum" in the Russian sportswear market? Which brands will the "ebb tide" of Companies in western countries bring opportunities?

Russian authoritative experts believe that in the future, Russian brands or international brands such as Li Ning, Anta and Turkey kinetix in China are most likely to replace foreign brands that leave.

In 2021, China will become the leader of Russian footwear import. About half of the foreign footwear products in Russia come from China, with a total amount of more than 1.5 billion US dollars, and the export volume is almost twice the total output of Russia.

According to the Russian consulting management company "Knight Frank Russia", in 2022, only two foreign brands entered the Russian market, including China's "Li Ning".

Chinese clothing brands such as Li Ning and Anta have the potential to enter the Russian market

Ma Youjun, chief professor of the China Russia comprehensive strategic cooperation provincial and ministerial collaborative innovation center of Heilongjiang University, said in an interview with Russia's telesat news agency that western countries ban goods that are beneficial to developing countries to enter the Russian market, while Chinese products that are cheap and good have more development potential. And one of the purposes of sanctions against Russia is to completely defeat Russia. It is likely that such sanctions will not be withdrawn immediately after the war.

RMB payment may become the main payment method for China Russia economic and trade relations in the future

According to authoritative experts, at present, China's sales in the Russian market are mainly daily necessities and textile products, mainly private enterprises, joint-stock companies or unofficial enterprises, which are not sanctioned by western countries such as Europe and the United States. From the perspective of strengthening cooperation in the future, the economic sanctions against Russia will lead to the increase of most commodity prices in the world, which will certainly increase the risk rate of the global financial crisis. At this stage, domestic brands such as Li Ning and Anta have few stores in Russia and are expected to enter the Russian market in the later stage. It is worth noting that in addition to considering that the Russian market may further increase the demand for Chinese products, it remains to be seen whether the payment capacity of the Russian market will be affected by the economic downturn.

Ma Youfang said, "according to scientific research, about one-third of our products in the Russian market use US dollars, one-third use RMB, and one-third use rubles. The probability of using US dollars for payment in the future is obviously not large, and only RMB and rubles can be used. However, the ruble exchange rate fluctuates greatly, so RMB payment may become the main payment method in the future economic and trade relations between the two countries."

Naturally, domestic brands must also grasp the limits when entering the Russian market. On the one hand, they cannot occupy the Russian market too much; On the other hand, special attention should be paid to preventing the export of fake and shoddy products and ensuring benign mutual cooperation in the Russian market.